See Sensex at 100,000 in 15 yrs: Elliott Wave Int

Mark Galasiewski, Asian-Pacific Fin Forecast at Elliott Wave International, sees Sensex at 100,000 within 15 years based on technicals and current patterns. He is of the view that October 2008 lows have already been breached by most markets but India did not, which is very significant. "From the pattern perspective, there was only a three wave decline down to the October lows and most of the other major world markets made what we would call a fifth wave or final wave down in this leg of their bear markets, but India is special because it has only three waves down."

Q: You seem to be very bullish on India. Looking at the charts of Sensex, what is your target for the Sensex in medium-term as well as the long-term, because you have a 15 year target?
A: We are very bullish, in fact this is going to sound extraordinary to many people but this is all based on technicals and if the patterns we are observing are correct, the implication is Sensex 100,000 within 15 years.

Q: What is your view on the Asian markets in that context, you think Asian markets will also rally or is it going to be just a regional phenomenon with Indian markets outperforming?
A: Our forecast for India is based on the particular what we are calling the Indian Ocean Group, these are the markets from Pakistan, down to Indonesia, that are connected to the Indian ocean. This is very distinct from the rest of East Asia for example and very distinct from Europe and the US. Our services here in the Eliot Wave International are forecasting larger bear markets for the next few to several years in the US, Europe, Japan and even china. India and the subcontinent in particular is special.

Q: Do you think that the October lows that we hit for global markets will be breached by most markets or will those lows hold?
A: The October lows already have been. The fact that India did not, is very significant. From the pattern perspective, there was only a three wave decline down to the October lows and most of the other major world markets made what we would call a fifth wave or final wave down in this leg of their bear markets, but India is special because it has only three waves down.